TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/061190/0611006.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 9.1 KB | 201 lines

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                                                          WORLD, Page 32

IRAQ

Sword of the Arabs


Brutal perhaps, but only as crazy as a desert fox, Saddam
Hussein mounts a crude push for Middle East supremacy and
worries the world

By JILL SMOLOWE -- Reported by Dean Fischer/Baghdad, Jon D.
Hull/ Jerusalem and William Mader/London


    The Arabic word saddam means "one who confronts." From the
start of the three-day Arab summit in Baghdad last week, Iraqi
President Saddam Hussein lived up to his name. Playing shrewdly
on the frustration of Arabs exasperated by the bloody stalemate
with Israel, Saddam set the aggressive tone in his opening
address: "We should state clearly that if Israel commits
aggression and attacks, we will strike back with great force.
If Israel uses weapons of total destruction against our nation,
we will use whatever weapons of total destruction we have
against it."

    The fiery rhetoric of a madman? Or the calculated political
message of an ambitious tyrant seeking to ensure his own
coronation as master of the Arab universe? That is just what
statesmen in the West and the Middle East are asking as Saddam
accelerates his determined campaign for regional dominance. In
recent months he has thrust himself into the world spotlight
with a series of saber-rattling actions, statements and threats
that have reinforced his reputation for ruthlessness and
provoked disturbing questions about his ultimate designs. "He
is playing on an old theme; call it constructive craziness,"
says Mark Heller of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in
Tel Aviv. "If you act like a loose cannon, people tend to treat
you with kid gloves."

    Certainly Saddam is not a man to trifle with or ignore. At
home the hallmark of his rule is fear: fear of the secret
police, of informers, of the midnight knock at the door that
results in mysterious disappearances and often in executions.
The penalty for openly speaking ill of him is death. According
to Amnesty International, hangings occur on an average of ten
to 20 times a month. Appeals for autonomy by rebellious Kurds
have been answered with poison gas and forced relocation. Not
even presumably loyal army officers are shielded from Saddam's
wrath: many died in suspicious helicopter crashes during the
gulf war.

    Abroad, Saddam has embarked on a dangerous course to
intimidate opponents and supporters alike. Last March an
Iraq-bound shipment of devices, widely believed to be for use
in triggering a nuclear explosion, was intercepted in London.
The ensuing speculation about his militaristic intentions
provoked Saddam to warn, "We will let our fire eat half of
Israel if it tries to wage anything against Iraq." A week later
British officials impounded another Iraqi shipment, this one
containing what defense experts thought was the barrel of the
world's largest cannon.

    All this might not be so alarming were it not for Saddam's
apparent determination to transform Iraq into a regional
superpower with a nuclear capability. Baghdad's vast arsenal
of sophisticated weaponry is at the disposal of a 1
million-strong battle-hardened military, by far the largest of
any Arab state. Given Israel's formidable military strength,
Saddam's buildup amounts to a Middle East version of mutual
assured destruction, the same kind of nerve-racking standoff
that governed East-West relations throughout the cold war.

    But even Iraq's Arab neighbors are made nervous by Saddam's
demonstrated willingness to use his weapons. One year after
assuming the presidency in 1979, Saddam sent his armies into
Iran, anticipating a quick and easy grab of disputed territory.
Before a cease-fire halted the fighting eight years later,
Saddam had used his chemical weapons against Iran's soldiers
and fired his missiles on Tehran and other cities. During the
savage war, Saddam enunciated to a visiting Arab delegation his
guiding philosophy toward the region by pounding a table with
his shoe and shouting, "That's the only way to treat Arabs!"


    The roots of Saddam's totalitarian impulse can be traced to
the northern Iraqi town of Tikrit, where he was born in 1937
to an impoverished peasant family. Fatherless, Saddam spent
much of his youth with his maternal uncle, Khairallah Talfah,
an army officer who in 1941 supported a failed attempt to
topple Iraq's British-controlled monarchy. Talfah's five-year
imprisonment instilled in the young Saddam a profound bitterness
that would give rise to a nationalistic fervor and an acute
desire to rid not only Iraq but also the entire Arab world of
foreign influence.

    Saddam's first venture into subversive politics came in 1956
when, as a new member of the Baath Party, he participated in
an abortive coup against King Faisal II. The task was completed
two years later by military strongman Abdul Karim Kassem. When
the Baathists fared no better under the new regime, Saddam was
tapped by the party in 1959 to assassinate Kassem. That attempt
also failed, but Saddam emerged a hero as stories circulated
of how he had a companion dig a bullet from his leg with a
penknife, then to Syria disguised as a Bedouin.

    By 1968 the Baath Party was firmly entrenched, and Saddam
embarked on a rising career that earned him the monicker
"Butcher of Baghdad." He ordered up, presided over and even
participated in executions of rivals, some of them once close
friends. Two years ago, Saddam ordered the trial of his own son
Uday, who had clubbed to death a presidential bodyguard.
Eventually Saddam succumbed to appeals for clemency, and Uday
was merely sent into brief exile.

    For a man who aims to dominate the Arab world, the Iraqi
leader is reclusive and aloof. He has not traveled outside the
Arab world since 1985, and rarely grants interviews. Despite
a feverish cult of personality, little is known about his
habits or tastes beyond the image he cultivates as a patron of
music and poetry. Those outside his tightly controlled inner
circle have little sense of the humorless man who hides behind
bombastic statements and paternalistic visits to the
countryside.

    Hence his every action becomes grist for analysis. Saddam's
obsession with security, which includes periodic purges of the
party and the military, may merely be prudent, though some
analysts see hints of paranoia. Yet most are convinced that
Saddam is cunningly sane. "He is not a lunatic," says a
high-ranking Israeli intelligence official. "He is a
megalomaniac, but he is rational." Concurs Philip Robins, head
of Middle East programs at the London-based Royal Institute of
International Affairs: "He is not driven by ideology or whim.
He coldly calculates every move."

    For that reason Saddam is not likely to do anything that
would jeopardize his standing either in Iraq or in the Middle
East. Many Western analysts believe Saddam would not be so
foolish as to initiate a first strike against Israel, a move
that would invite only his destruction. At the same time, they
warn that he is capable of vicious retaliation and caution
against attempts to isolate him, which might provoke his use
of outlawed weapons.

    The U.S. Administration and Middle East moderates, including
Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Hussein, feel that the
best antidote to Saddam's potential barbarity is to keep him
engaged in dialogue. In November 1988 the U.S. used quiet
diplomacy to extract from Saddam a promise that he would not
be first, in future, to use chemical weapons. Despite his
confrontational tone in Baghdad last week, Saddam signed on to
a watered-down communique that fell short of his call for oil
sanctions against the U.S. That was only a minor victory for
the region's moderates, who have much to fear from Saddam's
breed of radicalism. But it provided some encouragement that
as long as they can keep Saddam talking, there is hope of
persuading him to pursue a more reasonable course.


____________________________________________________________
STAYING ON TOP


    Despite a futile eight-year war that left more than 1
million Iraqis and Iranians dead, Saddam Hussein seems more
firmly entrenched than ever. He has maintained his firm grip
on power and extended his influence throughout the Middle East
by his willingness to use whatever it takes to stay on top.

    -- MILITARY MUSCLE

    A 1 million-man battle-tested army, 700 combat aircraft,
6,000 tanks, a vast array of chemical weapons, missiles capable
of delivering warheads up to 1,240 miles.

    -- NUCLEAR CAPABILITY

    Not the slightest doubt that Iraq is developing nuclear
weapons. Foreign sting operations this year blocked export of
triggering devices, but Iraq is likely to possess nuclear
weapons in five years.

    -- REIGN OF TERROR

    Consistent elimination of anyone suspected of disloyalty.
Informing, torture and arrest commonplace. According to Amnesty
International, ten to 20 public hangings a month.

    -- REGIONAL INTIMIDATION

    Demonstrated willingness to attack foes, vast oil wealth,
shrewd exploitation of Arab tension and frustrations with peace
process.